Kavanaugh-Gate As Well As Human Irrationality
September 29, 2018
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I'm going to wade - perhaps unwisely - into some fraught as well as controversial territory with this post, but I can't assist myself because I recollect at that topographic point are so many interesting things to hold upward learned from the ongoing Kavanaugh saga with abide by to the psychological fallibility of humankind. And, believe it or not, it does receive got investment implications.
It is widely believed past times economists that human beings are rational, as well as yet a large torso of psychological evidence, equally good equally simply an observation of human affairs, reveals that human beings are frequently incapable of fifty-fifty the most simple of rational as well as logical thinking inward an emotionally charged atmosphere. Even when emotions are non involved, studies receive got shown people to hold upward to some extent irrational, but inward these cases the deviations from touchstone rationality are relatively minor, as well as at that topographic point is to a greater extent than capacity for people to larn how to recollect as well as ground better, as well as right for these cognitive errors over time. However, it is when emotions are involved that nosotros encounter the most egregious departures from the most basic principles of logical thinking - fifty-fifty with otherwise real intelligent people - as well as the forces of irrationality hither are systemic, intractable, as well as unable to hold upward corrected.
For instance, right away after the Ford allegations broke inward the media (and Kavanaugh's response), Vox posted the next video, stating that powerful men who receive got perpetrated sexual assail follow a typical five-step process, including denial, appeals to credibility from people they know, as well as questioning the motives of the accuser. Kavanaugh was next a similar template, as well as the clear implication was that he was the latest inward a long draw of culpable perpetrators.
And yet fifty-fifty a minute of dispassionate reflection past times Vox - irrespective of one's views on the merits of the Kavanaugh instance - would receive got revealed that this is precisely the course of study of activity you lot would reasonably hold off somebody genuinely innocent as well as falsely defendant to receive got equally well. Someone falsely defendant could also hold upward reasonably expected to deny the allegations, brand appeals to their character, as well as inquiry the motives of who was accusing them as well as why. That doesn't imply or prove Kavanaugh is innocent, but that's my whole indicate - his response didn't evidence or imply anything at all nearly the merits of the case, as well as yet inward Vox's interpretation, his response somehow constituted evidence of his culpability. Vox also omitted to advert that many people defendant inward the #metoo motion receive got inward fact admitted to as well as apologised for past times incidents, rather than denied them (e.g. Lewis CK).
I can't recollect of a clearer instance of the wholesale abandonment of abstract logic, as well as just seeing what ane wants to see, as well as interpreting events inward a trend that conforms to one's preconceptions, assumptions, as well as Blue Planet view. Vox is non run past times stupid people. They are smart. But they are demonstrating hither how hard it is for fifty-fifty intelligent people to encounter the most obvious of logical fallacies inward their topographic point inward an emotionally-charged atmosphere.
Another laid of clear fallacies emerging inward the world dialogue (or stifling of world dialogue) is the unwitting commutation of a harder inquiry for another, easier, but unrelated question. The right (harder) inquiry that should hold upward asked is "after hearing from both sides as well as considering the evidence adduced, is at that topographic point a sufficient dry ground to believe these events may receive got happened, such that Kavanaugh's nomination should hold upward delayed or rejected?". Instead, the easier inquiry beingness substituted is, "do you lot recollect sexual assail or violence against women is a bad thing?". This is a dandy instance of the 'bait as well as switch' fallacy discussed inward the splendid volume Superforecasting.
Because people are emotionally charged nearly this issue, they are unable to encounter this less-than-subtle shift inward the underlying question, but it's a real of import shift, because it agency someone that answers the initial inquiry "no" - maybe for real proficient reason, grounded inward the insufficiency of the evidence adduced - tin give notice so hold upward labelled equally having answered the 2d inquiry "no". This so exposes the somebody to tremendous media/political fallout for non taking a hard draw against sexual violence, or inward some way showing insensitivity towards sexual assail victims, which is a clear non sequitur that anyone who has studied Logic 101 would hold upward able to easily identify.
This fallacy was on clear display after Republican Jeff Flake, who was initially undecided, said that after hearing the evidence he had decided to back upward Kavanaugh. He was after confronted past times angry mobs of sexual abuse survivors, who yelled "you're telling women they don't matter". This latter grouping had substituted the easier inquiry for the harder question. The political fallout has required Flake to retract his back upward pending an FBI investigation.
Thirdly, the instance has demonstrated the powerfulness of confirmation bias. A generation of liberals receive got been educated to expression at people based on their class/group identity, as well as to believe that powerful white men are, equally a group, power-abusing scumbags. We receive got also seen a lot of genuinely abhorrent conduct emerge inward the #metoo movement, which has been rightfully condemned. There is thence a strong pre-existing inclination to believe that whatever as well as all accusations that come upward forth are in all probability true, as well as thence an unwillingness to expression at opposite evidence. People are thence quite happy to rapidly as well as unequivocally nation "we believe you", without whatever critical seek out of the counter-evidence.
The full general #metoo sentiment makes it real hard for many people to consider this private instance on its ain merits inward a balanced way - something that the most rudimentary principles of justice as well as fairness ought to require. Simple dispassionate logic would acknowledge that the fact that Harvey Weinstein or Bill Cosby behaved reprehensibly, does non automatically brand allegations against Kavanaugh true. Nor does the fact that an private was personally bailiwick to an unrelated sexual assail automatically brand Kavanaugh guilty. But people are non willing to entertain these trite logical notions. Confirmation bias is a powerful strength that makes people believe what they desire to believe.
Fourthly, as well as somewhat separately, this instance highlights people's lack of agreement of the corrupting powerfulness of incentives. Sexual assail is a serious crime, as well as tin give notice hold upward traumatic for victims, which frequently delays the reporting of crimes for proficient reason. And it is sometimes a hard offense to prove, which makes applying the typical standards of criminal evidence much to a greater extent than difficult. For proficient reason, nosotros receive got thence shown pity as well as agreement towards sexual assail victims, as well as lowered the typical standards of necessary proof equally as result.
However, history has shown that whenever whatever grouping inward club is given a meaning amount of power, that it tin give notice locomote corrupted as well as liable to abuse. Society tends to believe allegations of sexual assault, because most of the fourth dimension that is the right as well as compassionate course of study of action. But anyone with a rudimentary agreement of the corrupting powerfulness of incentives would empathise that if you lot grant people the powerfulness to destroy someone's career as well as reputation on the dry ground of an unsubstantiated allegation solitary (and peculiarly where anonymity is allowed, as well as where at that topographic point are no legal or reputational repercussions for making mistaken accusations), that it is only a affair of fourth dimension earlier someone, somewhere attempts to abuse this powerfulness for political gain, or out of sheer vindictiveness.
People that really attention nearly justice, equally good equally genuinely attention nearly protecting the victims of genuine sexual assault, should thence hold upward real interested inward guarding against the misuse of this power. If ane or several instances of high-profile mistaken allegations emerge as well as are proven, this volition really laid dorsum the crusade of protecting women from sexual violence past times several decades, because it volition undermine society's willingness to believe genuine victims that come upward frontwards inward the future. This would hold upward a terrible outcome, as well as is non something that has been considered past times those willing to receive got whatever as well as all allegations on human face value alone.
The right approach is to care for each as well as every claim on its ain merits, as well as consider the evidence adduced earlier rushing to judgement, as well as to peculiarly exercise this when it is a province of affairs where at that topographic point are clear incentives for the powerfulness to hold upward misused (e.g. for political gain). This is non a affair of non taking sexual assail seriously - the Kavanaugh allegations receive got been taken incredibly seriously, as well as rightly so. It's nearly at that topographic point beingness a fair as well as balanced process, as well as a willingness to expression at each instance on its ain private merits.
In the introduce case, at that topographic point is non only an absence of evidence corroborating Ford's story, but a lot of evidence contradicting it. All 4 persons identified past times Ford equally having been introduce at the party, including ane she described equally a lifelong friend, receive got denied ever attention such a party. Ford claims she was driven to as well as from the political party past times someone, but is unable to topographic point that somebody or acquire them to confirm they did inward fact receive got her at that topographic point as well as back. Her electrical flow testimony contradicts her therapist notes (which said it happened former inward the mid-80s as well as 4 men were introduce inward the room, as well as didn't advert Kavanaugh, as well as is at nowadays claiming it happened specifically inward the summertime of 1982 as well as ii men were present, including Kavanaugh), as well as Ford withheld these notes from journalists. And literally hundreds of women who receive got been lifelong friends of Kavanaugh receive got come upward out vocally inward back upward of him as well as his grapheme as well as past times behaviour, suggesting that the women who know him best - hundreds of them - believe this accusation to hold upward wholly out of character.*
No thinking somebody could believe that these allegations are a sufficient dry ground for declaring Kavanaugh guilty as well as ineligible for the Supreme Court. And yet it is remarkable how lilliputian these simple facts as well as logic affair to so many people, who remain utterly convinced he is guilty. It is a testament to the strength of confirmation bias - it tin give notice trump fifty-fifty the most simple as well as obvious logic.
Lastly, the episode highlights the powerfulness of group/tribal thinking. Being a rational, independent thinker is an property as well as is rewarded inward sure domains of human endeavour (particularly inward the stock market), but inward many other areas of human affairs, it is a recipe for beingness 'ejected from the tribe'. In hunter get together days, beingness ostracised past times the tribe was a virtual decease sentence, as well as so human beings receive got deep-seated, hard-wired social instincts that drive them to stick with the pack at all costs, as well as 'tow the tribal line' rather than seek out independent truth. These instincts are so strong that they tin give notice easily trump private idea as well as rationality. The heretics receive got been persecuted as well as bailiwick to lynch mobs throughout history, as well as this is why people are so averse to stepping exterior of the crowd.
How is this relevant to investment?
The inward a higher house is relevant to the Blue Planet of investment for several reasons. Firstly, it highlights the bird to which rationality tin give notice intermission downwards where heightened emotions are involved, as well as inward fiscal markets, emotions frequently exercise run amok. The stakes are high inward markets - inward the Blue Planet of investment management, people's jobs, careers, incomes, reputations, as well as businesses are on the draw - as well as inward times of stress, this tin give notice trigger emotional responses grounded inward self-preservation instincts, that tin give notice undermine people's powerfulness to recollect as well as human activity rationally. A large component division of Buffett's success over the years has simply been his powerfulness to remain steadfastly rational inward a Blue Planet infused with incurable irrationality.
In addition, the powerfulness of group/tribal thinking explains a lot nearly why people cannot assist but cluster closely with the herd inward markets. It feels real uncomfortable to stand upward apart from the herd because the herd tin give notice hold upward a vindictive mob as well as it was a affair of life as well as decease inward the past, as well as our survival instincts trump rationality as well as logic. This is why markets are probable to forever remain irrational as well as prone to excesses, because hard-wired emotional instincts don't change. We tin give notice educate ourselves equally much equally nosotros desire nearly the wellness dangers of eating sugar, but nosotros volition proceed to swallow it anyway, equally our preferences are hardwired.
Human beings frequently believe their logical/rational encephalon to hold upward the master, but inward actual fact it commonly functions equally the servant. Emotions drive people's choices/preferences, as well as so the logical/rational encephalon is used equally a agency of finding the best ways to gratify or justify these emotional choices. We receive got seen with this Kavanaugh - many people desire him to hold upward guilty, so their rational brains rapidly orient themselves as well as piece of work hard to uncovering reasons to justify this belief, as well as a similar thing happens inward markets, when the marketplace topographic point narrative follows the cost action. This is because people uncovering intelligent-sounding arguments to justify the investments they intuitively/emotionally would similar to make, rather than engage inward logical analysis as well as accomplish a dispassionate conclusion. Have an intuitive/emotional belief Australian household prices ever rise? The logical encephalon volition laid to piece of work inward finding rationalisations for that emotional belief. And most of the fourth dimension it volition succeed, as well as volition convince people they are buying belongings for intellectual rather than emotional reasons.
The antidote, to the extent at that topographic point is ane (for many people, the illness is incurable - this is what Buffett agency when he refers to 'temperament' - he has long said some people receive got it as well as some don't, as well as it's largely a fixed grapheme trait), is an opened upward heed as well as facts/data. It is of import that people ever hold upward aware that they mightiness hold upward wrong, as well as hence to ever hold upward questioning assumptions as well as pre-existing views, as well as peculiarly past times actively seeking out as well as listening to opposite opinions. And it is of import to ever endeavor to verify assumptions/beliefs with hard evidence/data, rather than assuming things to hold upward self-evidently truthful just because they experience intuitive to you.
I'm nearly equally optimistic this volition orbit off on a full general society-wide dry ground equally I am nearly the outlook for Tesla's portion cost - i.e., non real much at all. In markets, that's dandy word - it agency at that topographic point volition proceed to hold upward fabulous opportunities for those who tin give notice remain rational as well as open-minded spell others lose their heads. In broader society, however, the forces of emotion as well as stupidity are dangerous, systemic, as well as intractable, as well as I exercise fearfulness for the outlooks for Western democracies sometimes.
LT3000
*Kavanaugh's total opening declaration is worth a hear as well as tin give notice hold upward flora here
Afterthought
In March, I published a postal service called "Motivated reasoning as well as the root crusade of intellectual intolerance". A lot of the analysis inward that postal service is real relevant to this discussion.
As discussed inward that article, free-thinkers don't believe beliefs are a choice, but rather are an emergent outcome of dispassionate analysis as well as what the facts propose is most probable to hold upward true. However, a meaning bulk of the Blue Planet care for beliefs to a greater extent than similar 'teams', that cast component division of their identity nearly what form of somebody they would similar to be/seen to be. In the Kavanaugh example, at that topographic point is 'Team Ford', which stands for "we oppose all kinds of sexual violence against women", as well as at that topographic point is 'Team Kavanaugh', which Team Ford would say stands for "normalising sexual oppression against women as well as protecting powerful white men from the consequences of their actions". Notably absent is whatever give-and-take or involvement inward whether the allegations are inward fact truthful or not, or whatever concern for whether Kavanaugh deserves to receive got his life, career, as well as reputation destroyed. He is simply collateral harm inward a wider cultural movement.
When the ground is laid upward this way, it ceases to hold upward a reasoned ground nearly truth, as well as instead devolves into something vitriolic as well as abusive. I receive got already had ii people block me on facebook, for instance, for purportedly normalising sexual violence against women, as well as 'threatening the security of my daughters', for just expressing the opinions above. This emotional reaction, though misguided, is totally understandable for people that believe I'm just trying to hold upward 'Team Kavanaugh'. I expected such a reaction as well as it is a cost I am prepared to pay to advocate the crusade of truth as well as justice. If nobody has the courage to exercise it, so our club is doomed.
This team-based epitome is a major employment inward our club at the minute as well as is highly divisive, as well as also dangerous. There is a notable disregard for the consequences of convicting a potentially innocent person, undermining basic fairness as well as institutions roughly the presumption of innocence, as well as depriving the Supreme Court of the exercise goodness of top legal talent - a courtroom whose decisions affects hundreds of millions of people (while also discouraging other competent people from serving inward world office) . I'm non sure what the solution to this employment is, or if at that topographic point fifty-fifty is one, but this is sure a real meaning problem.
Second afterthought
Having idea nearly as well as researched this number further, I receive got also come upward to believe that a subtle but pernicious cast of racism as well as prejudice inward the U.S.A. has also been a primal contributor to the Kavanaugh dialogue nosotros receive got seen thus far. This appears to hold upward a relatively novel phenomenon, as well as something that I was previously unaware had grown to the extent it has.
100 years ago, at that topographic point was pervasive racism against African Americans inward the US. Many people (incorrectly) believed that they were all a bunch of criminals as well as thieves. Consequently, this racist perspective meant that if an African American was defendant of theft, most people would hold upward willing to instantly believe it, irrespective of the facts, evidence, or merits of the private case, because he was putatively a fellow member of a thieving class, as well as so he thence must hold upward guilty.
Something real similar is happening today with abide by to white men inward the U.S.A. (especially inward positions of power), who are increasingly viewed equally zippo but a cast of sexual activity offending, lying, power-abusing scumbags. Consequently, inward an analogous fashion, many people are quite prepared to believe whatever as well as all allegations that emerge, as well as exercise non experience it necessary to expression at the evidence, because they experience they automatically 'know' he must hold upward guilty, on concern human relationship of the sins or perceived sins of his class. Without this prerequisite of systemic racism/sexism, the low-quality dialogue nosotros receive got seen on the Kavanaugh instance to engagement would receive got been, inward my electrical flow view, impossible.
The employment with racism is that it judges people equally a fellow member of a class, rather than equally an individual, as well as tars them with the same brush equally the offenses - existent or imagined - of other members of their class, irrespective of the specifics of the case. This is the real Definition of prejudice. The fact that ane African American stole something does non evidence that some other African American private is also a thief, as well as the exact same thing tin give notice hold upward said of white men as well as sexual assault. But racism promotes this devastating simplifying heuristic.
This whole experience has also helped me to improve empathise the origins of anti-Semitism. Jews receive got historically outperformed equally a class, on average, inward terms of achieving positions of power, authority, as well as amassing wealth. Given the emergent racism as well as sexism towards white men that is currently occurring, which partly reflects similar socioeconomic factors, it is thence quite slow to empathise how the politics of resentment receive got resulted inward the frequent persecution of Jews inward the past, including - at worst - their wholesale slaughter (I am non Jewish, past times the way).
Human beings tin give notice hold upward nasty, vile creatures at times - peculiarly when infused with resentment. It is deplorable to encounter that such sentiments are growing, rather than receding, inward the 21st Century. Far from becoming to a greater extent than enlightened, nosotros seem to hold upward regressing dorsum into primative, tribalistic mentalities.
It is widely believed past times economists that human beings are rational, as well as yet a large torso of psychological evidence, equally good equally simply an observation of human affairs, reveals that human beings are frequently incapable of fifty-fifty the most simple of rational as well as logical thinking inward an emotionally charged atmosphere. Even when emotions are non involved, studies receive got shown people to hold upward to some extent irrational, but inward these cases the deviations from touchstone rationality are relatively minor, as well as at that topographic point is to a greater extent than capacity for people to larn how to recollect as well as ground better, as well as right for these cognitive errors over time. However, it is when emotions are involved that nosotros encounter the most egregious departures from the most basic principles of logical thinking - fifty-fifty with otherwise real intelligent people - as well as the forces of irrationality hither are systemic, intractable, as well as unable to hold upward corrected.
For instance, right away after the Ford allegations broke inward the media (and Kavanaugh's response), Vox posted the next video, stating that powerful men who receive got perpetrated sexual assail follow a typical five-step process, including denial, appeals to credibility from people they know, as well as questioning the motives of the accuser. Kavanaugh was next a similar template, as well as the clear implication was that he was the latest inward a long draw of culpable perpetrators.
And yet fifty-fifty a minute of dispassionate reflection past times Vox - irrespective of one's views on the merits of the Kavanaugh instance - would receive got revealed that this is precisely the course of study of activity you lot would reasonably hold off somebody genuinely innocent as well as falsely defendant to receive got equally well. Someone falsely defendant could also hold upward reasonably expected to deny the allegations, brand appeals to their character, as well as inquiry the motives of who was accusing them as well as why. That doesn't imply or prove Kavanaugh is innocent, but that's my whole indicate - his response didn't evidence or imply anything at all nearly the merits of the case, as well as yet inward Vox's interpretation, his response somehow constituted evidence of his culpability. Vox also omitted to advert that many people defendant inward the #metoo motion receive got inward fact admitted to as well as apologised for past times incidents, rather than denied them (e.g. Lewis CK).
I can't recollect of a clearer instance of the wholesale abandonment of abstract logic, as well as just seeing what ane wants to see, as well as interpreting events inward a trend that conforms to one's preconceptions, assumptions, as well as Blue Planet view. Vox is non run past times stupid people. They are smart. But they are demonstrating hither how hard it is for fifty-fifty intelligent people to encounter the most obvious of logical fallacies inward their topographic point inward an emotionally-charged atmosphere.
Another laid of clear fallacies emerging inward the world dialogue (or stifling of world dialogue) is the unwitting commutation of a harder inquiry for another, easier, but unrelated question. The right (harder) inquiry that should hold upward asked is "after hearing from both sides as well as considering the evidence adduced, is at that topographic point a sufficient dry ground to believe these events may receive got happened, such that Kavanaugh's nomination should hold upward delayed or rejected?". Instead, the easier inquiry beingness substituted is, "do you lot recollect sexual assail or violence against women is a bad thing?". This is a dandy instance of the 'bait as well as switch' fallacy discussed inward the splendid volume Superforecasting.
Because people are emotionally charged nearly this issue, they are unable to encounter this less-than-subtle shift inward the underlying question, but it's a real of import shift, because it agency someone that answers the initial inquiry "no" - maybe for real proficient reason, grounded inward the insufficiency of the evidence adduced - tin give notice so hold upward labelled equally having answered the 2d inquiry "no". This so exposes the somebody to tremendous media/political fallout for non taking a hard draw against sexual violence, or inward some way showing insensitivity towards sexual assail victims, which is a clear non sequitur that anyone who has studied Logic 101 would hold upward able to easily identify.
This fallacy was on clear display after Republican Jeff Flake, who was initially undecided, said that after hearing the evidence he had decided to back upward Kavanaugh. He was after confronted past times angry mobs of sexual abuse survivors, who yelled "you're telling women they don't matter". This latter grouping had substituted the easier inquiry for the harder question. The political fallout has required Flake to retract his back upward pending an FBI investigation.
Thirdly, the instance has demonstrated the powerfulness of confirmation bias. A generation of liberals receive got been educated to expression at people based on their class/group identity, as well as to believe that powerful white men are, equally a group, power-abusing scumbags. We receive got also seen a lot of genuinely abhorrent conduct emerge inward the #metoo movement, which has been rightfully condemned. There is thence a strong pre-existing inclination to believe that whatever as well as all accusations that come upward forth are in all probability true, as well as thence an unwillingness to expression at opposite evidence. People are thence quite happy to rapidly as well as unequivocally nation "we believe you", without whatever critical seek out of the counter-evidence.
The full general #metoo sentiment makes it real hard for many people to consider this private instance on its ain merits inward a balanced way - something that the most rudimentary principles of justice as well as fairness ought to require. Simple dispassionate logic would acknowledge that the fact that Harvey Weinstein or Bill Cosby behaved reprehensibly, does non automatically brand allegations against Kavanaugh true. Nor does the fact that an private was personally bailiwick to an unrelated sexual assail automatically brand Kavanaugh guilty. But people are non willing to entertain these trite logical notions. Confirmation bias is a powerful strength that makes people believe what they desire to believe.
Fourthly, as well as somewhat separately, this instance highlights people's lack of agreement of the corrupting powerfulness of incentives. Sexual assail is a serious crime, as well as tin give notice hold upward traumatic for victims, which frequently delays the reporting of crimes for proficient reason. And it is sometimes a hard offense to prove, which makes applying the typical standards of criminal evidence much to a greater extent than difficult. For proficient reason, nosotros receive got thence shown pity as well as agreement towards sexual assail victims, as well as lowered the typical standards of necessary proof equally as result.
However, history has shown that whenever whatever grouping inward club is given a meaning amount of power, that it tin give notice locomote corrupted as well as liable to abuse. Society tends to believe allegations of sexual assault, because most of the fourth dimension that is the right as well as compassionate course of study of action. But anyone with a rudimentary agreement of the corrupting powerfulness of incentives would empathise that if you lot grant people the powerfulness to destroy someone's career as well as reputation on the dry ground of an unsubstantiated allegation solitary (and peculiarly where anonymity is allowed, as well as where at that topographic point are no legal or reputational repercussions for making mistaken accusations), that it is only a affair of fourth dimension earlier someone, somewhere attempts to abuse this powerfulness for political gain, or out of sheer vindictiveness.
People that really attention nearly justice, equally good equally genuinely attention nearly protecting the victims of genuine sexual assault, should thence hold upward real interested inward guarding against the misuse of this power. If ane or several instances of high-profile mistaken allegations emerge as well as are proven, this volition really laid dorsum the crusade of protecting women from sexual violence past times several decades, because it volition undermine society's willingness to believe genuine victims that come upward frontwards inward the future. This would hold upward a terrible outcome, as well as is non something that has been considered past times those willing to receive got whatever as well as all allegations on human face value alone.
The right approach is to care for each as well as every claim on its ain merits, as well as consider the evidence adduced earlier rushing to judgement, as well as to peculiarly exercise this when it is a province of affairs where at that topographic point are clear incentives for the powerfulness to hold upward misused (e.g. for political gain). This is non a affair of non taking sexual assail seriously - the Kavanaugh allegations receive got been taken incredibly seriously, as well as rightly so. It's nearly at that topographic point beingness a fair as well as balanced process, as well as a willingness to expression at each instance on its ain private merits.
In the introduce case, at that topographic point is non only an absence of evidence corroborating Ford's story, but a lot of evidence contradicting it. All 4 persons identified past times Ford equally having been introduce at the party, including ane she described equally a lifelong friend, receive got denied ever attention such a party. Ford claims she was driven to as well as from the political party past times someone, but is unable to topographic point that somebody or acquire them to confirm they did inward fact receive got her at that topographic point as well as back. Her electrical flow testimony contradicts her therapist notes (which said it happened former inward the mid-80s as well as 4 men were introduce inward the room, as well as didn't advert Kavanaugh, as well as is at nowadays claiming it happened specifically inward the summertime of 1982 as well as ii men were present, including Kavanaugh), as well as Ford withheld these notes from journalists. And literally hundreds of women who receive got been lifelong friends of Kavanaugh receive got come upward out vocally inward back upward of him as well as his grapheme as well as past times behaviour, suggesting that the women who know him best - hundreds of them - believe this accusation to hold upward wholly out of character.*
No thinking somebody could believe that these allegations are a sufficient dry ground for declaring Kavanaugh guilty as well as ineligible for the Supreme Court. And yet it is remarkable how lilliputian these simple facts as well as logic affair to so many people, who remain utterly convinced he is guilty. It is a testament to the strength of confirmation bias - it tin give notice trump fifty-fifty the most simple as well as obvious logic.
Lastly, the episode highlights the powerfulness of group/tribal thinking. Being a rational, independent thinker is an property as well as is rewarded inward sure domains of human endeavour (particularly inward the stock market), but inward many other areas of human affairs, it is a recipe for beingness 'ejected from the tribe'. In hunter get together days, beingness ostracised past times the tribe was a virtual decease sentence, as well as so human beings receive got deep-seated, hard-wired social instincts that drive them to stick with the pack at all costs, as well as 'tow the tribal line' rather than seek out independent truth. These instincts are so strong that they tin give notice easily trump private idea as well as rationality. The heretics receive got been persecuted as well as bailiwick to lynch mobs throughout history, as well as this is why people are so averse to stepping exterior of the crowd.
How is this relevant to investment?
The inward a higher house is relevant to the Blue Planet of investment for several reasons. Firstly, it highlights the bird to which rationality tin give notice intermission downwards where heightened emotions are involved, as well as inward fiscal markets, emotions frequently exercise run amok. The stakes are high inward markets - inward the Blue Planet of investment management, people's jobs, careers, incomes, reputations, as well as businesses are on the draw - as well as inward times of stress, this tin give notice trigger emotional responses grounded inward self-preservation instincts, that tin give notice undermine people's powerfulness to recollect as well as human activity rationally. A large component division of Buffett's success over the years has simply been his powerfulness to remain steadfastly rational inward a Blue Planet infused with incurable irrationality.
In addition, the powerfulness of group/tribal thinking explains a lot nearly why people cannot assist but cluster closely with the herd inward markets. It feels real uncomfortable to stand upward apart from the herd because the herd tin give notice hold upward a vindictive mob as well as it was a affair of life as well as decease inward the past, as well as our survival instincts trump rationality as well as logic. This is why markets are probable to forever remain irrational as well as prone to excesses, because hard-wired emotional instincts don't change. We tin give notice educate ourselves equally much equally nosotros desire nearly the wellness dangers of eating sugar, but nosotros volition proceed to swallow it anyway, equally our preferences are hardwired.
Human beings frequently believe their logical/rational encephalon to hold upward the master, but inward actual fact it commonly functions equally the servant. Emotions drive people's choices/preferences, as well as so the logical/rational encephalon is used equally a agency of finding the best ways to gratify or justify these emotional choices. We receive got seen with this Kavanaugh - many people desire him to hold upward guilty, so their rational brains rapidly orient themselves as well as piece of work hard to uncovering reasons to justify this belief, as well as a similar thing happens inward markets, when the marketplace topographic point narrative follows the cost action. This is because people uncovering intelligent-sounding arguments to justify the investments they intuitively/emotionally would similar to make, rather than engage inward logical analysis as well as accomplish a dispassionate conclusion. Have an intuitive/emotional belief Australian household prices ever rise? The logical encephalon volition laid to piece of work inward finding rationalisations for that emotional belief. And most of the fourth dimension it volition succeed, as well as volition convince people they are buying belongings for intellectual rather than emotional reasons.
The antidote, to the extent at that topographic point is ane (for many people, the illness is incurable - this is what Buffett agency when he refers to 'temperament' - he has long said some people receive got it as well as some don't, as well as it's largely a fixed grapheme trait), is an opened upward heed as well as facts/data. It is of import that people ever hold upward aware that they mightiness hold upward wrong, as well as hence to ever hold upward questioning assumptions as well as pre-existing views, as well as peculiarly past times actively seeking out as well as listening to opposite opinions. And it is of import to ever endeavor to verify assumptions/beliefs with hard evidence/data, rather than assuming things to hold upward self-evidently truthful just because they experience intuitive to you.
I'm nearly equally optimistic this volition orbit off on a full general society-wide dry ground equally I am nearly the outlook for Tesla's portion cost - i.e., non real much at all. In markets, that's dandy word - it agency at that topographic point volition proceed to hold upward fabulous opportunities for those who tin give notice remain rational as well as open-minded spell others lose their heads. In broader society, however, the forces of emotion as well as stupidity are dangerous, systemic, as well as intractable, as well as I exercise fearfulness for the outlooks for Western democracies sometimes.
LT3000
*Kavanaugh's total opening declaration is worth a hear as well as tin give notice hold upward flora here
Afterthought
In March, I published a postal service called "Motivated reasoning as well as the root crusade of intellectual intolerance". A lot of the analysis inward that postal service is real relevant to this discussion.
As discussed inward that article, free-thinkers don't believe beliefs are a choice, but rather are an emergent outcome of dispassionate analysis as well as what the facts propose is most probable to hold upward true. However, a meaning bulk of the Blue Planet care for beliefs to a greater extent than similar 'teams', that cast component division of their identity nearly what form of somebody they would similar to be/seen to be. In the Kavanaugh example, at that topographic point is 'Team Ford', which stands for "we oppose all kinds of sexual violence against women", as well as at that topographic point is 'Team Kavanaugh', which Team Ford would say stands for "normalising sexual oppression against women as well as protecting powerful white men from the consequences of their actions". Notably absent is whatever give-and-take or involvement inward whether the allegations are inward fact truthful or not, or whatever concern for whether Kavanaugh deserves to receive got his life, career, as well as reputation destroyed. He is simply collateral harm inward a wider cultural movement.
When the ground is laid upward this way, it ceases to hold upward a reasoned ground nearly truth, as well as instead devolves into something vitriolic as well as abusive. I receive got already had ii people block me on facebook, for instance, for purportedly normalising sexual violence against women, as well as 'threatening the security of my daughters', for just expressing the opinions above. This emotional reaction, though misguided, is totally understandable for people that believe I'm just trying to hold upward 'Team Kavanaugh'. I expected such a reaction as well as it is a cost I am prepared to pay to advocate the crusade of truth as well as justice. If nobody has the courage to exercise it, so our club is doomed.
This team-based epitome is a major employment inward our club at the minute as well as is highly divisive, as well as also dangerous. There is a notable disregard for the consequences of convicting a potentially innocent person, undermining basic fairness as well as institutions roughly the presumption of innocence, as well as depriving the Supreme Court of the exercise goodness of top legal talent - a courtroom whose decisions affects hundreds of millions of people (while also discouraging other competent people from serving inward world office) . I'm non sure what the solution to this employment is, or if at that topographic point fifty-fifty is one, but this is sure a real meaning problem.
Second afterthought
Having idea nearly as well as researched this number further, I receive got also come upward to believe that a subtle but pernicious cast of racism as well as prejudice inward the U.S.A. has also been a primal contributor to the Kavanaugh dialogue nosotros receive got seen thus far. This appears to hold upward a relatively novel phenomenon, as well as something that I was previously unaware had grown to the extent it has.
100 years ago, at that topographic point was pervasive racism against African Americans inward the US. Many people (incorrectly) believed that they were all a bunch of criminals as well as thieves. Consequently, this racist perspective meant that if an African American was defendant of theft, most people would hold upward willing to instantly believe it, irrespective of the facts, evidence, or merits of the private case, because he was putatively a fellow member of a thieving class, as well as so he thence must hold upward guilty.
Something real similar is happening today with abide by to white men inward the U.S.A. (especially inward positions of power), who are increasingly viewed equally zippo but a cast of sexual activity offending, lying, power-abusing scumbags. Consequently, inward an analogous fashion, many people are quite prepared to believe whatever as well as all allegations that emerge, as well as exercise non experience it necessary to expression at the evidence, because they experience they automatically 'know' he must hold upward guilty, on concern human relationship of the sins or perceived sins of his class. Without this prerequisite of systemic racism/sexism, the low-quality dialogue nosotros receive got seen on the Kavanaugh instance to engagement would receive got been, inward my electrical flow view, impossible.
The employment with racism is that it judges people equally a fellow member of a class, rather than equally an individual, as well as tars them with the same brush equally the offenses - existent or imagined - of other members of their class, irrespective of the specifics of the case. This is the real Definition of prejudice. The fact that ane African American stole something does non evidence that some other African American private is also a thief, as well as the exact same thing tin give notice hold upward said of white men as well as sexual assault. But racism promotes this devastating simplifying heuristic.
This whole experience has also helped me to improve empathise the origins of anti-Semitism. Jews receive got historically outperformed equally a class, on average, inward terms of achieving positions of power, authority, as well as amassing wealth. Given the emergent racism as well as sexism towards white men that is currently occurring, which partly reflects similar socioeconomic factors, it is thence quite slow to empathise how the politics of resentment receive got resulted inward the frequent persecution of Jews inward the past, including - at worst - their wholesale slaughter (I am non Jewish, past times the way).
Human beings tin give notice hold upward nasty, vile creatures at times - peculiarly when infused with resentment. It is deplorable to encounter that such sentiments are growing, rather than receding, inward the 21st Century. Far from becoming to a greater extent than enlightened, nosotros seem to hold upward regressing dorsum into primative, tribalistic mentalities.