When Argue Fails: Mitchell's Damning Report; Media Bias; Too Disillusionment
October 02, 2018
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I actually loathe to write to a greater extent than or less other slice on the Kavanaugh saga, equally I actually produce non want to unduly politicise this blog. However, this is solely a non-partisan number for me (I don't fifty-fifty specially similar Kavanaugh - he is equally good conservative for my tastes), as well as the province of affairs is simply so important, as well as so instructive virtually so many things, that I receive got been unable to comprise a modest fry obsession alongside the number over the yesteryear several days, as well as believe to a greater extent than or less of these insights demand to endure shared. And it's non actually a storey virtually Kavanaugh, Ford, as well as #metoo. It is instead fundamentally a storey virtually the failure of both human reason, equally good equally our media institutions/journalistic traditions, which nosotros rely on to sustain the wellness of our democracy.
Yesterday, Rachel Mitchell released a study to Senators on her assessment of the merits of Christina Ford's allegations against Kavanaugh. Mitchell is a woman mortal prosecutor (not defense lawyer) of sexual laid on as well as related crimes, alongside 25 years of experience assessing the credibility of, as well as prosecuting, sexual laid on cases. In other words, she is ane of the world's firstly as well as most experienced experts inward the plain of assessing the merits of sexual laid on allegations. She was chosen yesteryear the Republicans to inquire questions of Ford inward the recent Senate hearing, but she is a non-partisan figure.
Her report on the veracity of Ford's allegations is utterly damning. She notes that 'he said, she said' situations are ever hard to prove, but inward the introduce case, Ford's allegations are inward fact much weaker than that, equally Ford's testimony contains no corroboration; all witnesses dispute her claims; as well as in that place are a large number of textile inconsistencies inward her story, equally good equally suspicious omissions. She goes on to supply five total pages of bullet points alongside specific examples of major irregularities alongside Ford's testimony, of exactly the assort yous would await to emerge nether cross-examination if a witness were lying. She concludes alongside a tremendous understatement: "I produce non intend that a reasonable prosecutor would choose this instance based on the evidence earlier the Committee". I encourage anyone alongside an involvement inward this number to read the study inward its entirety.
Now let's intend virtually this for a moment. Here nosotros receive got ane of the world's firstly experts inward assessing the merits of sexual laid on claims, who is to a greater extent than informed on the specifics of this instance than virtually anyone else inward the world, expressing serious doubts virtually the integrity of Ford's allegations, as well as yet every unmarried mainstream media source I receive got seen, alongside the exception of Fox News, has been absolutely convinced and committed to the thought Kavanaugh is guilty, as well as has been determined to utterly destroy his reputation as well as convict him inward the courtroom of populace opinion.
Every unmarried trouble of Kavanaugh's testimony has been scrutinized upwardly as well as downward yesteryear the media, looking for the most modest fry of potential infractions, alongside the worst possible out-of-context interpretation ascribed to anything he said. And when he became understandably emotional virtually the outcome these faux allegations receive got had on his household unit of measurement as well as daughters, he was callously condemned alongside the utmost cruelty equally an 'angry man' whose tirade demonstrated he was completely unfit for populace office.
Furthermore, fifty-fifty exterior the mainstream media, the vast bulk of people I commonly regard equally independent free-thinkers as well as bulwarks against the biased mainstream media, such equally Sam Harris, equally good equally many other well-known commentators such equally Nate Silver as well as Paul Krugman, receive got also all been extremely active inward the Twittersphere busily condemning Kavanaugh as well as sharing whatever as well as all articles putatively proving Kavanaugh lied inward the hearings. Often, these claims role to a greater extent than or less of the most spurious as well as tortured logic I receive got ever seen, equally good equally to a greater extent than or less of the most heroic of assumptions. The criterion of proof beingness applied to Kavanaugh is non 'is this probable to receive got happened?', but 'is in that place whatever conceivable scenario, withal unlikely, where this could receive got happened?'*
Meanwhile, in that place has been almost no scrutiny at all of Ford's claims yesteryear the mainstream media, who receive got been prepared to overlook the most extraordinary of inconsistencies that strain credulity to the breaking point. Such inconsistencies include claiming the trial initially happened when she was xviii (by which betoken she had already left school), as well as and so changing her storey to say it occurred when she was xv (and silent inward school); as well as claiming to receive got 'forgot' whether she gave her therapist notes to journalists just a few months agone (which comprise many statements that contradict her electrical flow story, including that in that place were 4 offenders, non two), while deliberately withholding the notes from the committee. I would encourage people to read Mitchell's study for a total listing of the cumulative irregularities. I would add, separately, that when giving her testimony, Ford also did non curlicue her eyes upwards when asked to recall memories. This is a sign that a different component of the encephalon is beingness activited, as well as is regarded yesteryear trunk linguistic communication experts equally a really reliable sign of dishonesty.
So how is it that, on the ane hand, nosotros receive got a testimony from Ford littered alongside obvious irregularities, such that ane of the most experienced prosecutors in the globe on these matters - as well as mayhap the most knowledgeable mortal on this specific instance (who is also a woman) - believes the instance would endure summarily thrown out, land virtually the entirety of the world's media as well as non-mainstream intelligentsia feels entitled to ignore the evidence as well as range the completely reverse conclusion, as well as self-righteously destroy Kavanaugh's career, reputation, as well as life?
This is a misfortunate storey of the consummate failure of human reason. It's a storey of biased, motivated reasoning, as well as the inability of people to intend rationally inward an surround of heightened emotion, as well as the errors inward judgment as well as terrible injustices that tin sometimes final result from these shortcomings. On my reading of the evidence currently available, the only reasonable determination to pull is that in that place is an insufficient solid set down to believe these allegations are true, as well as so that the reasonable as well as fair course of didactics of activity is to maintain on the supposition they did not. That does non hateful nosotros tin endure 100% sure - nosotros tin endure 100% sure of really petty inward life - but in that place is currently no reasonable solid set down to believe the alleged incident ever happened, as well as yet the mainstream media narrative is the exact opposite.**
It is also a hitting indictment on the lack of journalistic impartiality as well as ethics that currently exist, along alongside the bird to which PC authoritarianism has overrun Western lodge (such that people are exercising self-censorship, inward failing to interrogation Ford's account). Because in that place is such widespread Democrat opposition to Kavanaugh's appointment, in that place has been every motive to capitalise on these allegations for political advantage, as well as this is a large component of why Kavanaugh has been treated so unfairly, inward my opinion. That politicans would human activity inward such a ruthlessly opportunistic trend is outrageous but does non surprise me, but it ought to endure the project of our journalistic/media institutions to telephone holler upwardly out these sorts of political shenanigans, non actively facilitate them. It should non endure rouge bloggers such equally myself having to produce this assort of thing (the only argue I am is that so few others are). However, the anti-Kavanaugh rebuke has gone good beyond the mainstream media, as well as I tin only conclude from this that widespread societal prejudice (men ever lie, women are ever honest) has also been a contributing factor, and/or a toxic penchant for virtue signalling. It's a misfortunate province of affairs.**
I'm used to beingness a contrarian, independent thinker, as well as standing apart from the crowd. However, the bird of irrationality on this number has been so extreme that fifty-fifty I receive got never - ever - felt to the extent I produce now, that either I or the whole globe must endure going completely as well as utterly insane. And I must say, I don't intend I receive got ever quite had this bird of distrust inward the might of human reason, or such distrust inward the ethics of journalists or human beings inward general. I am thoroughly disillusioned as well as appalled (or, perhaps, insane).
LT3000
*For example, it has been asserted equally proof Kavanaugh lied that he said he 'never went to a gathering similar the ane Ford described', because it was a modest gathering as well as Kavanaugh would receive got gone to gatherings similar that, as well as in that place is no trend he could receive got remembered all of them. So he must endure lying. But he denied it on the solid set down of the event's location, which was exterior the expanse where he commonly socialised at the time, as well as on the solid set down of his diaries. And he also appears to receive got a much amend retentiveness than average. These factors produce non bear witness that he is telling the truth, but to assert that this is smoking-gun proof he is lying is completely ridiculous. Yet otherwise really smart people receive got been quite willing to choose this logic equally satisfactory (e.g. Krugman).
Much has also been made of his penchant for beer (which he has non denied, but attempted to downplay). That has been seized upon equally farther proof of dishonesty - he didn't voluntarily offering upwardly details of getting drunkard as well as throwing upwardly when inward school, ergo he is lying on the stand, as well as must receive got been blind drunkard at the fourth dimension as well as non remembered the incident. Again, anything is possible, but it's non at all likely if in that place is absolutely no other corroborating evidence. And who, really, is proud of their worst drunken school-boy moments, as well as wants to volunteer them upwardly to a global audience? He was evasive inward answering these questions probable just because he did not want to lie.
**Since publication, these 2 paragraphs receive got been substituted for the master paragraph written below, which I believe inward hindsight was poorly written as well as equally good strongly worded. In the interests of maintaining fair disclosure, however, the receive got preserved the master text below:
It is also a hitting indictment on the lack of journalistic impartiality as well as ethics that currently exist, along alongside the bird to which PC authoritarianism has overrun Western lodge (such that people are exercising self-censorship). The attacks on Kavanaugh are almost for certain a politically-motivated smear, aimed non just at blocking his nomination, but discrediting Republicans ahead of the upcoming midterm elections. That politicans would produce such a thing is outrageous but does non surprise me, but it ought to endure the project of our journalistic/media institutions to telephone holler upwardly out this assort of political corruption, non actively facilitate it. It should non endure rouge bloggers such equally myself having to produce this assort of thing (the only argue I am is that so few others are). But it has gone fifty-fifty farther than the above, equally fifty-fifty many independent free-thinkers exterior of traditional media receive got also joined into the anti-Kavanaugh chorus. I tin only ascribe this to widespread societal prejudice (men ever lie, women are ever honest), and/or a toxic penchant for virtue signalling.
Important afterword
One anecdote I regrettably forgot to include inward the master article was that it was reported that at the Harvard Law School, when Kavanaugh was giving his alive testimony as well as discussing how the allegations had impacted his life, as well as mentioned it could hateful that he could never learn police clit at Yale ane time again (which he equally been doing component fourth dimension for 10 years), a cheer manifestly erupted inward the hall.
Learning this concerned me to a greater extent than than anything else. Here nosotros receive got to a greater extent than or less of the smartest people inward the country, who ought to endure the most knowledgeable of all virtually the importance of due procedure as well as the presumption of innocence, exhibiting to a greater extent than or less of the most heinous prejudice I receive got ever seen. If fifty-fifty Harvard police clit students receive got piece of occupation this corrupted, what promise is in that place for the futurity of civil society?
Yesterday, Rachel Mitchell released a study to Senators on her assessment of the merits of Christina Ford's allegations against Kavanaugh. Mitchell is a woman mortal prosecutor (not defense lawyer) of sexual laid on as well as related crimes, alongside 25 years of experience assessing the credibility of, as well as prosecuting, sexual laid on cases. In other words, she is ane of the world's firstly as well as most experienced experts inward the plain of assessing the merits of sexual laid on allegations. She was chosen yesteryear the Republicans to inquire questions of Ford inward the recent Senate hearing, but she is a non-partisan figure.
Her report on the veracity of Ford's allegations is utterly damning. She notes that 'he said, she said' situations are ever hard to prove, but inward the introduce case, Ford's allegations are inward fact much weaker than that, equally Ford's testimony contains no corroboration; all witnesses dispute her claims; as well as in that place are a large number of textile inconsistencies inward her story, equally good equally suspicious omissions. She goes on to supply five total pages of bullet points alongside specific examples of major irregularities alongside Ford's testimony, of exactly the assort yous would await to emerge nether cross-examination if a witness were lying. She concludes alongside a tremendous understatement: "I produce non intend that a reasonable prosecutor would choose this instance based on the evidence earlier the Committee". I encourage anyone alongside an involvement inward this number to read the study inward its entirety.
Now let's intend virtually this for a moment. Here nosotros receive got ane of the world's firstly experts inward assessing the merits of sexual laid on claims, who is to a greater extent than informed on the specifics of this instance than virtually anyone else inward the world, expressing serious doubts virtually the integrity of Ford's allegations, as well as yet every unmarried mainstream media source I receive got seen, alongside the exception of Fox News, has been absolutely convinced and committed to the thought Kavanaugh is guilty, as well as has been determined to utterly destroy his reputation as well as convict him inward the courtroom of populace opinion.
Every unmarried trouble of Kavanaugh's testimony has been scrutinized upwardly as well as downward yesteryear the media, looking for the most modest fry of potential infractions, alongside the worst possible out-of-context interpretation ascribed to anything he said. And when he became understandably emotional virtually the outcome these faux allegations receive got had on his household unit of measurement as well as daughters, he was callously condemned alongside the utmost cruelty equally an 'angry man' whose tirade demonstrated he was completely unfit for populace office.
Furthermore, fifty-fifty exterior the mainstream media, the vast bulk of people I commonly regard equally independent free-thinkers as well as bulwarks against the biased mainstream media, such equally Sam Harris, equally good equally many other well-known commentators such equally Nate Silver as well as Paul Krugman, receive got also all been extremely active inward the Twittersphere busily condemning Kavanaugh as well as sharing whatever as well as all articles putatively proving Kavanaugh lied inward the hearings. Often, these claims role to a greater extent than or less of the most spurious as well as tortured logic I receive got ever seen, equally good equally to a greater extent than or less of the most heroic of assumptions. The criterion of proof beingness applied to Kavanaugh is non 'is this probable to receive got happened?', but 'is in that place whatever conceivable scenario, withal unlikely, where this could receive got happened?'*
Meanwhile, in that place has been almost no scrutiny at all of Ford's claims yesteryear the mainstream media, who receive got been prepared to overlook the most extraordinary of inconsistencies that strain credulity to the breaking point. Such inconsistencies include claiming the trial initially happened when she was xviii (by which betoken she had already left school), as well as and so changing her storey to say it occurred when she was xv (and silent inward school); as well as claiming to receive got 'forgot' whether she gave her therapist notes to journalists just a few months agone (which comprise many statements that contradict her electrical flow story, including that in that place were 4 offenders, non two), while deliberately withholding the notes from the committee. I would encourage people to read Mitchell's study for a total listing of the cumulative irregularities. I would add, separately, that when giving her testimony, Ford also did non curlicue her eyes upwards when asked to recall memories. This is a sign that a different component of the encephalon is beingness activited, as well as is regarded yesteryear trunk linguistic communication experts equally a really reliable sign of dishonesty.
So how is it that, on the ane hand, nosotros receive got a testimony from Ford littered alongside obvious irregularities, such that ane of the most experienced prosecutors in the globe on these matters - as well as mayhap the most knowledgeable mortal on this specific instance (who is also a woman) - believes the instance would endure summarily thrown out, land virtually the entirety of the world's media as well as non-mainstream intelligentsia feels entitled to ignore the evidence as well as range the completely reverse conclusion, as well as self-righteously destroy Kavanaugh's career, reputation, as well as life?
This is a misfortunate storey of the consummate failure of human reason. It's a storey of biased, motivated reasoning, as well as the inability of people to intend rationally inward an surround of heightened emotion, as well as the errors inward judgment as well as terrible injustices that tin sometimes final result from these shortcomings. On my reading of the evidence currently available, the only reasonable determination to pull is that in that place is an insufficient solid set down to believe these allegations are true, as well as so that the reasonable as well as fair course of didactics of activity is to maintain on the supposition they did not. That does non hateful nosotros tin endure 100% sure - nosotros tin endure 100% sure of really petty inward life - but in that place is currently no reasonable solid set down to believe the alleged incident ever happened, as well as yet the mainstream media narrative is the exact opposite.**
It is also a hitting indictment on the lack of journalistic impartiality as well as ethics that currently exist, along alongside the bird to which PC authoritarianism has overrun Western lodge (such that people are exercising self-censorship, inward failing to interrogation Ford's account). Because in that place is such widespread Democrat opposition to Kavanaugh's appointment, in that place has been every motive to capitalise on these allegations for political advantage, as well as this is a large component of why Kavanaugh has been treated so unfairly, inward my opinion. That politicans would human activity inward such a ruthlessly opportunistic trend is outrageous but does non surprise me, but it ought to endure the project of our journalistic/media institutions to telephone holler upwardly out these sorts of political shenanigans, non actively facilitate them. It should non endure rouge bloggers such equally myself having to produce this assort of thing (the only argue I am is that so few others are). However, the anti-Kavanaugh rebuke has gone good beyond the mainstream media, as well as I tin only conclude from this that widespread societal prejudice (men ever lie, women are ever honest) has also been a contributing factor, and/or a toxic penchant for virtue signalling. It's a misfortunate province of affairs.**
I'm used to beingness a contrarian, independent thinker, as well as standing apart from the crowd. However, the bird of irrationality on this number has been so extreme that fifty-fifty I receive got never - ever - felt to the extent I produce now, that either I or the whole globe must endure going completely as well as utterly insane. And I must say, I don't intend I receive got ever quite had this bird of distrust inward the might of human reason, or such distrust inward the ethics of journalists or human beings inward general. I am thoroughly disillusioned as well as appalled (or, perhaps, insane).
LT3000
*For example, it has been asserted equally proof Kavanaugh lied that he said he 'never went to a gathering similar the ane Ford described', because it was a modest gathering as well as Kavanaugh would receive got gone to gatherings similar that, as well as in that place is no trend he could receive got remembered all of them. So he must endure lying. But he denied it on the solid set down of the event's location, which was exterior the expanse where he commonly socialised at the time, as well as on the solid set down of his diaries. And he also appears to receive got a much amend retentiveness than average. These factors produce non bear witness that he is telling the truth, but to assert that this is smoking-gun proof he is lying is completely ridiculous. Yet otherwise really smart people receive got been quite willing to choose this logic equally satisfactory (e.g. Krugman).
Much has also been made of his penchant for beer (which he has non denied, but attempted to downplay). That has been seized upon equally farther proof of dishonesty - he didn't voluntarily offering upwardly details of getting drunkard as well as throwing upwardly when inward school, ergo he is lying on the stand, as well as must receive got been blind drunkard at the fourth dimension as well as non remembered the incident. Again, anything is possible, but it's non at all likely if in that place is absolutely no other corroborating evidence. And who, really, is proud of their worst drunken school-boy moments, as well as wants to volunteer them upwardly to a global audience? He was evasive inward answering these questions probable just because he did not want to lie.
**Since publication, these 2 paragraphs receive got been substituted for the master paragraph written below, which I believe inward hindsight was poorly written as well as equally good strongly worded. In the interests of maintaining fair disclosure, however, the receive got preserved the master text below:
It is also a hitting indictment on the lack of journalistic impartiality as well as ethics that currently exist, along alongside the bird to which PC authoritarianism has overrun Western lodge (such that people are exercising self-censorship). The attacks on Kavanaugh are almost for certain a politically-motivated smear, aimed non just at blocking his nomination, but discrediting Republicans ahead of the upcoming midterm elections. That politicans would produce such a thing is outrageous but does non surprise me, but it ought to endure the project of our journalistic/media institutions to telephone holler upwardly out this assort of political corruption, non actively facilitate it. It should non endure rouge bloggers such equally myself having to produce this assort of thing (the only argue I am is that so few others are). But it has gone fifty-fifty farther than the above, equally fifty-fifty many independent free-thinkers exterior of traditional media receive got also joined into the anti-Kavanaugh chorus. I tin only ascribe this to widespread societal prejudice (men ever lie, women are ever honest), and/or a toxic penchant for virtue signalling.
Important afterword
One anecdote I regrettably forgot to include inward the master article was that it was reported that at the Harvard Law School, when Kavanaugh was giving his alive testimony as well as discussing how the allegations had impacted his life, as well as mentioned it could hateful that he could never learn police clit at Yale ane time again (which he equally been doing component fourth dimension for 10 years), a cheer manifestly erupted inward the hall.
Learning this concerned me to a greater extent than than anything else. Here nosotros receive got to a greater extent than or less of the smartest people inward the country, who ought to endure the most knowledgeable of all virtually the importance of due procedure as well as the presumption of innocence, exhibiting to a greater extent than or less of the most heinous prejudice I receive got ever seen. If fifty-fifty Harvard police clit students receive got piece of occupation this corrupted, what promise is in that place for the futurity of civil society?